May 17

2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Expert Picks, Fantasy Golf Advice & Predictions

GolfStrat’s Expert Fantasy Golf Picks
“The 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial”

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The 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

Previous Colonial Invitational champions include: Boo Weekley (2013), Zach Johnson (2012, 2010), David Toms (2011), Steve Stricker (2009), Phil Mickelson (2008,2000), Rory Sabbatini (2007), Tim Herron (2006), Kenny Perry (2005, 2003), Steve Flesch (2004), Nick Price (2002, 1994), and Sergio Garcia (2001). The list of champions over the past decade is very impressive compared to most non-Major events, so Colonial Country Club tends to bring out the best in the top ranked players, but it’s also due to the fact this tournament has “Invitational” status and can fill its field (which is smaller) with less restrictions than most tournaments. It’s also one of the longest tenured stops on the PGA Tour schedule. Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth is a par 70, 7,204 yard test.

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Group A
Group B
Group B
Group C
Round 4
Adam Scott
Dustin Johnson
Jim Furyk
Charley Hoffman
Round 4 Notes
  • Weather: 9-11mph winds in the morning with 11-15mph winds in the PM; similar to Saturday but given the pressure of playing late on Sunday, earlier tee times should be favored
  • (A) Adam Scott – could make a run on Sunday; last man standing (B) the big decision is whether to use a Spieth start on Sunday. He’s at -4 and is 3 shots back, but there are 20 guys ahead of him at this point. We like the way his game is trending, but we doubt he’ll pull off the victory on Sunday, so we’ll take the gamble of preserving a start and hopefully using him later this season. Dustin and Jim will get our start once again. (C) We’ll take Hoffman on Sunday, but neither he nor Senden have had great 4th round success – we like Hoffman because the pressure is less starting the day.


Recent Finishes
“Colonial” Finishes
(A) Matt Kuchar (7) Byron Nelson
(17) Players
(1) RBC
(5) Masters
(2) 2013
(26) 2012
(16) 2011
(56) 2010
(27) 2009
Kuchar continues to perform but couldn’t close any ground at the Byron Nelson, so we’re happy to have kept him on our bench last week. He’s made the cut each of the past 5 years at Colonial, so he’ll be on our team again this week.
(A) Adam Scott (38) Players
(14) Masters
(3) Bay Hill
(25) WGC Cadillac
(65) 2011
(64) 2009
Adam Scott doesn’t have the track record like Kuchar, but he has been making cuts and should step it up as we get closer to the majors. He needs to get those top 10s flowing once again. We’ll probably pick either Kuchar or Scott and then roll with them unless the other gets in contention on Sunday. Others to consider: #3 Rickie Fowler, #4 Rory Sabbatini, #5 Marc Leishman, #6 Brian Davis, #7 Daniel Summerhays, #8 Brandt Snedeker
(B) Jim Furk (2) Players
(2) Wells Fargo
(7) RBC
(14) Masters
(31) 2013
(4) 2012
(31) 2011
(MC) 2010
(9) 2009
Jim may now be the “hottest” player on tour with two 2nd place finishes in a row. It’s good that he got some rest this week after coming agonizingly close in previous weeks. Pretty good track record at Colonial, so we like him again this week.
(B) Zach Johnson (26) Players
(14) Wells Fargo
(61) RBC
(MC) Masters
(3) 2013
(1) 2012
(4) 2011
(1) 2010
(9) 2009
Zach Johnson is your “Horse for the Course” this week (check out our post #3 for others with top track records). He has played like Tiger at Torrey or Bay Hill during Zach’s last 5 starts, including two victories and 5 top 10s. Too bad Zach isn’t on top of his game at the moment, as that could keep him out of the winner’s circle this week.
(B) Jordan Spieth (37) Byron Nelson
(4) Players
(12) RBC
(2) Masters
(7) 2013
Jordan is hard to trust to contend every week quite yet, but he’s typically a good bet to make the cut and has the fire power to win anywhere. We’re happy to have left him on our bench last week and keep those bullets for when he gets really hot. Soon he should run away with a tournament and win by 4 or more. Of course, we’re worried that he’s playing too often and hasn’t gotten a chance to recharge.
(B) Chris Kirk (or Dustin Johnson – TBD) (13) Players
(30) Wells Fargo
(27) RBC
(20) Masters
(35) 2013
(5) 2012
(16) 2011
Chris has the track record and the improving game recently to be a factor this week. He’s getting hot at just the right time. Others to consider: #5 Dustin Johnson/Chris Kirk, #6 Bill Haas, #7 Graham DeLaet, #8 David Hearn, #9 Matt Jones, #10 Hideki Matsuyama
(C) John Senden (11) Byron Nelson
(26) Players
(29) Zurich
(8) Masters
(MC) 2013
(37) 2012
(8) 2011
(56) 2010
(18) 2009
Senden has a decent track record at Colonial and has recently taken his game to another level, so we’re hoping he can get his best ever finish at Colonial this week.
(C) Charley Hoffman (38) Players
(5) Zurich
(38) RBC
(37) Shell
(18) 2013
(13) 2012
(46) 2009
Consistently making cuts but hasn’t hit been getting top 10s. Nice to have him on your roster and hopefully you can save a few of Jimmy Walker’s starts for later events. Others to consider: #3 Kevin Na, #4 John Huh, #5 Jimmy Walker, #6 Ryan Palmer, #7 Kevin Kisner, #8 Boo Weekley (finished well at Byron Nelson), #9 Louis Oosthuizen


#1 Matt Kuchar (31/2) #2 Zach Johnson (33/2) #3 Jim Furyk (35/2) #4 Adam Scott (18/1) #5 Jordan Spieth (37/2)
#6 Dustin Johnson (26/1) #7 Jimmy Walker (34/1) #8 Graham DeLaet (38/1) #9 Chris Kirk (44/1) #10 Marc Leishman (50/1)
#10 Bill Haas (50/1) #10 Louis Oosthuizen (50/1) #10 Ryan Palmer (50/1) #14 Rickie Fowler (55/1) #14 Jason Dufner (55/1)
#14 Kevin Na (55/1) #14 John Huh (55/1) #18 John Senden (60/1) #18 Boo Weekley (60/1) #20 Hunter Mahan (65/1)
#20 Paul Casey (65/1) #20 Harris English (65/1) #23 Hideki Matsuyama (75/1) #23 Brandt Snedeker (75/1) Odds by Betfair